Yen Sinks as Fed Officials Talk Down QE Reduction Bets
The Japanese Yen sank
amid a recovery in risk appetite in Asia after Fed officials poured
cold water on QE reduction expectations. More of the same is hinted
ahead.
The Japanese Yen
underperformed in overnight trade, down as much as 0.8 percent on
average against its top counterparts, as swelling risk appetite buoyed
demand for carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding
currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rose 2
percent as investors cheered on comments from New York Fed President Bill Dudley and Fed Governor Jerome Powell that poured cold water on stimulus reduction bets.
Dudley said QE may be prolonged as-is if the
economy falls short of the central bank’s outlook, adding growth may
“diverge significantly” from the FOMC forecast. Powell added that the
timing for reducing asset purchases is “in no way” predetermined.
Commodity prices likewise tracked higher as traders greeted the
possibility that Fed support may not be withdrawn as quickly as
previously expected. Cycle-sensitive crude oil prices followed shares higher while gold and silver edged higher as the prospect of longer-lasting QE stabilized anti-fiat demand.
S&P 500 futures
are pointing firmly higher in early European trade, pointing to more of
the same through the end of the trading week. The preliminary set of
June’s German CPI
figures headlines the economic calendar. Expectations suggest the
headline inflation rate rose to 1.7 percent, a five-month high. The
result may weigh on the probability for expanded ECB stimulus in the
minds of investors and boost the Euro, where prices have been tracking closely in line with the front-end yield spread (a gauge of the markets’ monetary policy outlook). Comments from Fed Governor (and sitting FOMC member) Jeremy Stein headline the day’s speaking schedule.
Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood
GMT
|
CCY
|
EVENT
|
ACT
|
EXP
|
PREV
|
22:45
|
NZD
|
Building Permits (MoM) (MAY)
|
1.3%
|
-3.9%
|
21.0%
|
23:05
|
GBP
|
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN)
|
-21
|
-21
|
-22
|
23:15
|
JPY
|
Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (JUN)
|
52.3
|
-
|
51.5
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
National CPI (YoY) (MAY)
|
-0.3%
|
-0.4%
|
-0.7%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY)
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
-0.4%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY)
|
-0.4%
|
-0.3%
|
-0.6%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Household Spending (YoY) (MAY)
|
-1.6%
|
1.3%
|
1.5%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Jobless Rate (MAY)
|
4.1%
|
4.0%
|
4.1%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Job-To-Applicant Ratio (MAY)
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.89
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JUN)
|
0.0%
|
0.1%
|
-0.2%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN)
|
0.2%
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN)
|
-0.4%
|
-0.3%
|
-0.3%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY P)
|
2.0%
|
0.2%
|
0.9%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY P)
|
-1.0%
|
-2.4%
|
-3.4%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Large Retailers' Sales (MAY)
|
-0.4%
|
0.2%
|
-2.3%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (MAY)
|
1.5%
|
0.7%
|
0.6%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Retail Trade (YoY) (MAY)
|
0.8%
|
0.0%
|
-0.2%
|
1:30
|
AUD
|
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (MAY)
|
0.3%
|
0.3%
|
0.3%
|
1:30
|
AUD
|
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (MAY)
|
3.0%
|
2.9%
|
3.1%
|
1:35
|
CNY
|
MNI Flash Business Sentiment Indicator (JUN)
|
53.7
|
-
|
56.7
|
3:00
|
NZD
|
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (MAY)
|
6.2%
|
-
|
6.5%
|
4:00
|
JPY
|
Vehicle Production (YoY) (MAY)
|
-6.2%
|
-
|
-6.5%
|
5:00
|
JPY
|
Housing Starts (YoY) (MAY)
|
14.5%
|
6.1%
|
5.8%
|
5:00
|
JPY
|
Annualized Housing Starts (MAY)
|
1.027M
|
0.950M
|
0.939M
|
5:00
|
JPY
|
Construction Orders (YoY) (MAY)
|
26.0%
|
-
|
2.0%
|
Euro Session:
GMT
|
CCY
|
EVENT
|
EXP/ACT
|
PREV
|
IMPACT
|
6:00
|
EUR
|
German Retail Sales (YoY)
|
0.4% (A)
|
2.7%
|
Medium
|
6:00
|
EUR
|
German Retail Sales (MoM)
|
0.8% (A)
|
-0.1%
|
Medium
|
6:00
|
GBP
|
Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM)
|
0.3% (A)
|
0.4%
|
Medium
|
6:00
|
GBP
|
Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY)
|
1.9% (A)
|
1.1%
|
Medium
|
7:00
|
CHF
|
KOF Swiss Leading Indicator
|
1.16 (A)
|
1.1
|
Medium
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
Index of Services (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
Low
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
Index of Services (3Mo3M)
|
1.1%
|
0.6%
|
Low
|
12:00
|
EUR
|
German CPI (MoM) (JUN P)
|
0.0%
|
0.4%
|
High
|
12:00
|
EUR
|
German CPI (YoY) (JUN P)
|
1.7%
|
1.5%
|
High
|
12:00
|
EUR
|
German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUN P)
|
0.1%
|
0.3%
|
Low
|
12:00
|
EUR
|
German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUN P)
|
1.8%
|
1.6%
|
Low
|
Critical Levels:
CCY
|
SUPPORT
|
RESISTANCE
|
1.3006
|
1.3089
|
|
GBPUSD
|
1.5192
|
1.5336
|
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