Yen Sinks as Fed Officials Talk Down QE Reduction Bets

The Japanese Yen sank amid a recovery in risk appetite in Asia after Fed officials poured cold water on QE reduction expectations. More of the same is hinted ahead.

 

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, down as much as 0.8 percent on average against its top counterparts, as swelling risk appetite buoyed demand for carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rose 2 percent as investors cheered on comments from New York Fed President Bill Dudley and Fed Governor Jerome Powell that poured cold water on stimulus reduction bets.

Dudley said QE may be prolonged as-is if the economy falls short of the central bank’s outlook, adding growth may “diverge significantly” from the FOMC forecast. Powell added that the timing for reducing asset purchases is “in no way” predetermined. Commodity prices likewise tracked higher as traders greeted the possibility that Fed support may not be withdrawn as quickly as previously expected. Cycle-sensitive crude oil prices followed shares higher while gold and silver edged higher as the prospect of longer-lasting QE stabilized anti-fiat demand.

S&P 500 futures are pointing firmly higher in early European trade, pointing to more of the same through the end of the trading week. The preliminary set of June’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar. Expectations suggest the headline inflation rate rose to 1.7 percent, a five-month high. The result may weigh on the probability for expanded ECB stimulus in the minds of investors and boost the Euro, where prices have been tracking closely in line with the front-end yield spread (a gauge of the markets’ monetary policy outlook). Comments from Fed Governor (and sitting FOMC member) Jeremy Stein headline the day’s speaking schedule.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood 

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
22:45	NZD	Building Permits (MoM) (MAY)	1.3%	-3.9%	21.0%
23:05	GBP	GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN)	-21	-21	-22
23:15	JPY	Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (JUN)	52.3	-	51.5
23:30	JPY	National CPI (YoY) (MAY)	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.7%
23:30	JPY	National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY)	0.0%	0.0%	-0.4%
23:30	JPY	National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY)	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.6%
23:30	JPY	Household Spending (YoY) (MAY)	-1.6%	1.3%	1.5%
23:30	JPY	Jobless Rate (MAY)	4.1%	4.0%	4.1%
23:30	JPY	Job-To-Applicant Ratio (MAY)	0.9	0.9	0.89
23:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JUN)	0.0%	0.1%	-0.2%
23:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN)	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
23:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN)	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.3%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY P)	2.0%	0.2%	0.9%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY P)	-1.0%	-2.4%	-3.4%
23:50	JPY	Large Retailers' Sales (MAY)	-0.4%	0.2%	-2.3%
23:50	JPY	Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (MAY)	1.5%	0.7%	0.6%
23:50	JPY	Retail Trade (YoY) (MAY)	0.8%	0.0%	-0.2%
1:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (MAY)	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
1:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit (YoY) (MAY)	3.0%	2.9%	3.1%
1:35	CNY	MNI Flash Business Sentiment Indicator (JUN)	53.7	-	56.7
3:00	NZD	Money Supply M3 (YoY) (MAY)	6.2%	-	6.5%
4:00	JPY	Vehicle Production (YoY) (MAY)	-6.2%	-	-6.5%
5:00	JPY	Housing Starts (YoY) (MAY)	14.5%	6.1%	5.8%
5:00	JPY	Annualized Housing Starts (MAY)	1.027M	0.950M	0.939M
5:00	JPY	Construction Orders (YoY) (MAY)	26.0%	-	2.0%

Euro Session:

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP/ACT	PREV	IMPACT
6:00	EUR	German Retail Sales (YoY)	0.4% (A)	2.7%	Medium
6:00	EUR	German Retail Sales (MoM)	0.8% (A)	-0.1%	Medium
6:00	GBP	Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM)	0.3% (A)	0.4%	Medium
6:00	GBP	Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY)	1.9% (A)	1.1%	Medium
7:00	CHF	KOF Swiss Leading Indicator	1.16 (A)	1.1	Medium
8:30	GBP	Index of Services (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	Low
8:30	GBP	Index of Services (3Mo3M)	1.1%	0.6%	Low
12:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM) (JUN P)	0.0%	0.4%	High
12:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY) (JUN P)	1.7%	1.5%	High
12:00	EUR	German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUN P)	0.1%	0.3%	Low
12:00	EUR	German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUN P)	1.8%	1.6%	Low

  Critical Levels:

CCY	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
EURUSD	1.3006	1.3089
GBPUSD	1.5192	1.5336

What is Forex?

What is Forex?

What is forex? Why trade forex?

The foreign exchange market – or forex for short – is the buying and selling of currencies, and it’s one of the fastest growing markets in the world. From 2007 to 2010, forex market activity increased by 20%, with average daily turnover reaching nearly $4 trillion in April of 2010.

Forex trading works much like it does with stocks, you buy low and you sell high. The benefit of trading forex is that you don’t have to choose from thousands of companies or sectors. Plus, you can make things even simpler than choosing which company to buy.

For example, most people, even those that are new to forex, have an opinion on the US dollar and the US economy. They can easily take their opinions and translate them into a forex trade. Buying or selling US Dollars as simple as they buying or selling a company’s stock.

Also, another advantage of the FX market is that it doesn’t begin at 9AM and end at 4PM. Trading takes place 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. For most people 24 hour trading means they can trade before or after work. Plus, you have the flexibility to make your trades online.

Plus, you can buy and sell at any time, in up trends (also called bull markets) and in down trends (also called bear markets).

It’s easy to get started. You can sign up for a free demo with FXCM and get $50,000 of virtual money to practice trading online with one of FXCM’s easy to use trading platforms, including mobile and tablet offerings. At FXCM we provide all the educational resources and trading tools you need to go from practice trading to real trading. Online educational seminars and a suite of video lessons are only a few examples.

The time to trade forex is now. Join the millions of traders around the world.

The Basics of How Money is Made Trading Forex

Trading currency in the Forex market centers around the basic concepts of buying and selling.

Let's take the idea of buying first. What if you bought something (it could literally be almost anything...a house, a piece of jewelry or a stock) and it went up in value. If you sold it at that point, you would have made a profit...the difference between what you paid originally and the greater value that the item is worth now.

Currency trading is the same way...

Let's say you want to buy the AUDUSD currency pair. If the AUD goes up in value relative to the USD and then you sell it, you will have made a profit. A trader in this example would be buying the AUD and selling the USD at the same time.

For example if the AUDUSD pair was bought at 1.0615 and the pair moved up to 1.0700 at the time that the trade was closed/exited, the profit on the trade would have been 85 pips. (See the chart below…)

Had the pair moved down to 1.0600 before the trade was closed, the loss on the trade would have been 40 pips.

 

Also, it makes no difference which currency pair you are trading. If the price of the currency you are buying goes up from the time you bought it, you will have made a profit.

 

Here is another example using the AUD. In this case we still want to buy the AUD but let’s do this with the EURAUD currency pair. In this instance we would sell the pair. We would be selling the EUR and buying the AUD simultaneously. Should the AUD go up relative to the EUR we would profit as we bought the AUD.

In this example if we sold the EURAUD pair at 1.2320 and the price moved down to 1.2250 when we closed the position, we would have made a profit of 70 pips. Had the pair moved up instead and we closed out the position at 1.2360 we would have had a loss of 40 pips on the trade.

Remember, we are always buying or selling the currency on the left side of the pair. If we buy the currency on the left side, which is called the base currency, we are selling the one on the right side which is called the cross or counter currency. The opposite would be true if we were selling the currency on the left side.

 

Now let's take a look at how a trader can make a profit by selling a currency pair. This concept is a little trickier to understand than buying. It is based on the idea of selling something that you borrowed as opposed to selling something that you own.

In the case of currency trading, when taking a sell position you would borrow the currency in the pair that you were selling from your broker (this all takes place seamlessly within the trading station when the trade is executed) and if the price went down, you would then sell it back to the broker at the lower price. The difference between the price at which you borrowed it (the higher price) and the price at which you sold it back to them (the lower price) would be your profit.

 

For example, let’s say a trader believes that the USD will go down relative to the JPY. In this case the trader would want to sell the USDJPY pair. They would be selling the USD and buying the JPY at the same time. The trader would be borrowing the USD from their broker when they execute the trade. If the trade moved in their favor the JPY would increase in value and the USD would decrease. At the point where they closed out the trade, their profits from the JPY increasing in value would be used to pay back the broker for the borrowed USD at the now lower price. After paying back the broker, the remainder would be their profit on the trade.

 

For example, let’s say the trader shorted the USDJPY pair at 76.28. If the pair did in fact move down and the trader closed/exited the position at 75.81, the profit on the trade would be 47 pips.

On the other hand, if the pair was shorted at 76.28 and the pair did not move down but rather it moved up to 76.50 when the position was closed, there would be a loss on the trade of 22 pips.

In a nutshell, this how you can make a profit from selling something that you do not own.

In wrapping up, if you buy a currency pair and it moves up, that trade would show a profit. If you sell a currency pair and it moves down, that trade would show a profit.

  

Currency Names and Symbols

As you may have noticed, the symbols (abbreviations) for all currencies have three letters. The first two letters denote the name of the country and third letter stands for the name of that country’s currency.

As an example, let’s look at the USD. The US stands for United States and the D stands Dollar.

The currencies on which the majority of traders focus are called the “majors”. The most widely traded currencies are represented on the grid below:

Not to be confused with major currencies are the major currency pairs. The Major Pairs are any currency pair with USD in them. For example, the EURUSD would be considered a Major Pair.

Currency pairs without the USD in them are referred to as Cross Pairs. The EURJPY would be an example of a Cross Pair.

To carry this one step further, any EUR pair without the USD in it would be referred to as a Euro Cross. So the EURJPY would be a member of the EURO Cross group. Other member of that group would be EURGBP, EURCHF, EURNZD, EURCAD and EURAUD.

Other currency groups of this type would be comprised of the JPY crosses, GBP crosses, AUD crosses, NZD crosses and the CHF crosses. 

  Dollar Advances Alongside Equities as Market Debates September Taper

Dollar Advances Alongside Equities as Market Debates September Taper

The positive correlation between the US dollar and S&P 500 is solidifying again – which is a disappointing sign for those looking for an extended and momentous advance for the currency. It is absolutely possible that both the safe haven currency and sentiment-tied benchmark equity index can rise in tandem, but such a climb would be slow and choppy for both. Feeding stocks just off record highs as economic growth maintains a lackluster pace, earnings growth forecasts fade and cheap money evaporates is extraordinarily improbable – borderline impossible. The alternative would be a wave of ‘sidelined’ capital returning to the capital markets. To assume that that will / must happen with asset prices still near record highs falls into the category of ‘hope’. A deleveraging is likely inevitable, and that will no doubt usher a break of the positive correlation and spur the dollar to a much more prolific and momentous climb.

Switching from the big picture to the more immediate tides behind the greenback, the market was once again focusing in on speculation surrounding the ‘Taper’ time frame. There were two explicit highlights for market participants to work with. The first quarter GDP figure proved the source of a considerable debate. Though a ‘final’ reading – second update with more data following the flash reading – the sizable reduction from a 2.4 percent to 1.8 percent pace of expansion does stir concern. Personal consumption’s 0.8 percentage point slip to 2.6 percent was the principle catalyst for the general slowdown. Weaker growth can be interpreted as reducing the probability that the Fed will reduce its monthly QE purchases from $85 to $65 billion at the September meeting – the current consensus amongst economists – but not by much.

The same taper delay / risk booster / dollar weight can be drawn out of Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota’s comments this past session. A dovish non-voter, the central banker repeated his lament that the market’s reactions to the Fed warnings were ‘outsized’ and that dates shouldn’t be given on QE. In contrast, Richmond Fed President Lacker – a hawkish non-voter – said he would be “fine with tapering it off right now”. This is a balance of commentary that seems to support a general belief – that pumping the breaks in September seems to be the outcome FOMC members expect as well. In the upcoming US session, we will see the Fed headlines actually increase. On deck, we have Dudley (voter), Powell (voter) and Lockheart (non-voter). Pay particularly attention to the voters. Also, a 7-year Treasury auction is scheduled. The 5-year sale this past session met its lowest demand since August 2009. QE has plenty of influence on speculation alone…

Euro Faces Short-Term Volatility on Data, Lasting Turbulence on Financial Issues

There is plenty going on in the world of Euro-area event risk, but it has yet to generate much consistent influence on the currency. This past session, there were a number of comments that should have caught investors’ attention. ECB President Draghi (and a few of his fellow board members) found it necessary to repeat the bank’s readiness to act should financial conditions seize in the region. The EU’s Dijsselbloem reminded us of Cyprus, saying the country must stay its austerity course. Greek officials also remarked that recent failures in national asset sales towards privatization would not result in a funding gap for the country. Though once moving, it is difficult to stop; it takes a lot to get the ‘Euro Crisis’ theme rolling. Those watching the crisis track will watch the EU Summit details. Short-term traders: German jobs figures.

Japanese Yen: Looking for Stimulus Success in Data, Volatility

How successful has monetary policy in Japan been? How do we measure success – growth and inflation or a cheaper yen? We will wade into this debate in the upcoming session. On tap, we have a dense round of key economic indicators due Friday morning (Thursday evening for the Western world). May data on retail sales, factory activity, household spending, employment and inflation hits all the keys areas of the economy and covers approximately two months of stimulus influence. In the meantime, true success is keeping market volatility under control.

British Pound Drops after BoE Warns of Vulnerability, Osborne Presents CutsUnder an active stimulus regime – where weak data or policy concerns leads to increased external support – poor data can actually be interpreted as a positive. That isn’t the case for the UK and the sterling where bad news is met by a monetary policy authority that has no plans to play the knight in shining armor. This past session, Chancellor Osborne laid out his plans for cutting an additional £11.5 billion from spending after April 2015; while the BoE financial stability report said UK banks were ‘vulnerable’. Not encouraging without a stimulus counterbalance.

New Zealand Dollar Traders: Keep an Eye on RBNZ’s Currency Report

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) members have been unusually vocal over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, the central bank released the annual Statement of Intent and Governor Wheeler lamented the negative effect of the still-high kiwi dollar. This morning, Deputy Governor Spencer said a rate rise was not an option as it would put pressure on the kiwi dollar – policy via exchange rates? The pinnacle of central bank talk though comes later with the Monthly Assessment of Currency Flows. Did they intervene again? Do they see need to do so soon?

Swiss Franc: EURCHF Poised for Break as SNB Bulletin Due

While we haven’t seen EURCHF return to the SNB’s strictly enforced 1.2000-floor in the past nine months, the pair also hasn’t moved far from the hard floor. The central bank has essentially found itself unsuccessful in materially turning the trend on its currency – the franc- for two full years (when we first dropped below 1.2000). The longer we linger in this area and Euro uncertainty persists, the greater the need for forcible action. We have an SNB Bulletin due today, but it is unlikely to give guidance. A short-term break out is likely from the 1.2300 – 1.2225 range.

Gold Sets Another Multi-Year Low on Another Jump in Volume

Another 4.0 percent ($51) collapse from gold pushed the metal to its lowest close since August 2010. The pain simply doesn’t stop because the diehard holdouts for an ever-lasting bull run continue to jump ship. We are two days from the end of the quarter; but we can already see how the high time frame view will look unless there is a dramatic, last-minute rebound: awful. Currently, the second quarter 2013 has seen gold bleed 23 percent of its value – the most dramatic loss on record.

ECONOMIC DATA

GMT	Currency	Release	Survey	Previous	Comments
1:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence (JUN)		41.8	Whether overall sentiment moves with GDP numbers from Wednesday will be noted.
1:00	NZD	ANZ Activity Outlook (JUN)		34.3
1:30	CNY	Industrial Profits (YTD) (YoY) (MAY)		11.4%	Any data out of China will be closely watched following liquidity scares and spikes in inter-bank exchange rates.
3:00	NZD	RBNZ Publishes Currency Flows Report			Lingering risks of intervention
7:00	EUR	Spain Retail Sales (MAY)			Spain 10yr yields are up over 20%
7:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change (JUN)	8K	21K	Numbers have been stable as Germany continues to be the only bright spot in Europe.
7:55	EUR	German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUN)	6.9%	6.9%
8:00	EUR	Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (MAY)	2.8%	3.%	Levels have stubbornly remained under 4.0 since 2009.
8:00	EUR	Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (MAY)	2.9%	3.2%
8:30	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q F)	0.3%	0.3%	Significant data like this out of the UK will impact GBP, which has seen extreme volatility over the past few weeks.
8:30	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q F)	0.6%	0.6%
8:30	GBP	Current Account (Pounds) (1Q)	-12.0B	-14.0B
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JUN)	90.4	89.4	As with any European data in these sensitive ‘taper’ times, any disappointments will make moves in the FX market as some call for a return to Eurozone volatility to the downside.
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUN F)	-18.8	-18.8
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (JUN)	-0.65	-0.76
10:00	EUR	Ireland GDP (1Q)
12:30	USD	Personal Income (MAY)	0.2%	0.%	Data shows a recovery from sequester fueled spikes lower in January.
12:30	USD	Personal Spending (MAY)	0.3%	-0.2%
12:30	USD	PCE Deflator (MoM) (MAY)	0.1%	-0.3%	The FOMC’s preferred inflation figures expected to increase. Still far from 2% target.
12:30	USD	PCE Deflator (YoY) (MAY)	1.1%	0.7%
12:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 22)	345K	354K	Although 2013 has shown a steady downtrend, recent talk of the ‘taper’ may have spooked hirers.
12:30	USD	Continuing Claims (JUN 15)	2953K	2951K
13:00	CHF	SNB Publishes Quarterly Bulletin			Officials have voiced commitment to 1.2000, but admit balance sheet size
14:00	USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM) (MAY)	1.%	0.3%	Year over year data will be telling as concerns of rising mortgage rates rise.
14:00	USD	Pending Home Sales (YoY) (MAY)	8.3%	13.9%
23:01	GBP	GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN)	-21	-22	Print has been below -20 since 2010.
23:15	JPY	Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (JUN)		51.5	With the Bank of Japan engaged in its unprecedented stimulus program, regular assessments of growth and inflation are necessary by officials. In May Figures, there are two months of the data for assessment.
23:30	JPY	National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)	-0.4%	-0.7%
23:30	JPY	Jobless Rate (MAY)	4.%	4.1%
23:30	JPY	Household Spending (YoY) (MAY)	1.3%	1.5%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY P)	0.2%	0.9%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY P)	-2.3%	-3.4%
23:50	JPY	Large Retailers' Sales (MAY)	0.2%	-2.3%

GMT	Currency	Upcoming Events & Speeches
	EUR	EU Summit in Brussels
7:00	EUR	German Chancellor Merkel Speaks to Parliament on EU Summit
14:00	USD	Fed's William Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economy
14:30	USD	Fed's Jerome Powell Speaks on Monetary Policy
16:30	USD	Fed's Dennis Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economy
17:00	USD	US to Sell $29 Bln in 7-Year Notes